T9s SB on 952r: Priced In Down The River
- Hero
- T♥9♥
- Position
- SB vs UTG
- Pot
- 3-Bet Pot
- Flop
- 2♠ 5♥ 9♠
With top pair at a low SPR, bet small on the flop and bluff-catch down when pot odds make folding impossible.
Flop Analysis
With top pair and backdoor flush potential in a 3-bet pot with less than 1 SPR, leading out for value and protection is standard.
**Ranges:** Our 3-bet range carries a substantial overpair advantage, while UTG continues with pocket pairs like 66-77 and broadway floats that must pay to see turns.
**Sizing:** Sizing small at roughly one-third pot extracts value from pocket pairs and floats while preserving maneuverability on bad turns.
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> **Takeaway:** At shallow SPR in 3-bet pots, small c-bets with top pair deny cheap equity while keeping dominated pocket pairs in.
Turn Analysis
The Ace improves UTG's float range while demoting our holding to second pair, making a check mandatory to control the pot.
Turn Analysis
Calling is standard given the outstanding price and the shallow stack depth. Our second pair still retains sufficient equity against villain's turn stabs.
**Math:** Facing an 8.8BB bet into a 35.4BB pot, we are getting 5.0:1 pot odds and need only 16.6% equity to call profitably.
**Ranges:** While UTG has value hands with top pair and sets, their turn betting range also includes spade flush draws and missed broadway floats stabbing at the checked pot.
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> **Takeaway:** When facing small turn stabs at shallow SPR, generous pot odds compel defending second pair against semi-bluff barrels.
River Analysis
Checking is standard; second pair holds zero value against calling ranges and must check to let villain determine river action.
River Analysis
A mandatory call to finish the hand. The price laid by the pot makes folding mathematically impossible despite the scare card.
**Math:** Committing 4.3BB to win a 57.2BB total pot offers 13.4:1 odds, requiring just 7% equity to break even.
**Ranges:** Although UTG's value range contains flushes, sets, and top pair, folding any pair when needing only 7% equity severely over-folds our range against any residual bluffs.
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> **Takeaway:** When you are priced in at better than 13-to-1 on the river, pot odds dictate calling with any reasonable pair.
Key Concepts
- Committed
- Hero Slight Advantage
- OOP
- Semi-Wet Board
- LEAN TOWARD CHECK