Flop Analysis
Small c-betting is exactly what the solver wants: we have a slight range and nut advantage, the SPR is low, and this combo with the backdoor hearts and ace blocker is a near-mandatory small stab.
The preflop 4-bet and small flop c-bet are fine, but the turn shove massively over-bluffs a spot where our hand has poor equity and range wants to check.
Small c-betting is exactly what the solver wants: we have a slight range and nut advantage, the SPR is low, and this combo with the backdoor hearts and ace blocker is a near-mandatory small stab.
Jamming turn with pure air is the big leak — our hand is near the very bottom of range, villain is heavily weighted to made hands, and this card doesn’t shift the range dynamic enough to justify blasting off. **Ranges:** After calling flop, BU’s range is packed with overpairs, top pair, and medium pairs, with some of those medium pairs also picking up straight draws, while our range still has plenty of overpairs and strong queens that are happy to check once. Our actual hand is now just high card while villain is mostly made hands that don’t like folding in a 4-bet pot. **Board:** The turn 7 adds straight possibilities and keeps the heart draws live, which helps BU more than us; it’s a bad card to over-bluff because it improves or adds equity to a chunk of the calling range instead of clearly favoring our value region. **Math:** With an SPR under 1, a shove risks our whole stack against a condensed, pair-heavy range while our hand only has modest overcard equity when called — the solver’s much higher EV check reflects that our fold equity isn’t compensating for how crushed we are when called. --- > **Takeaway:** In 4-bet pots on turn cards that improve villain’s condensed calling range, let your air go to showdown more often instead of forcing low-equity all-ins.
Note: Turn shove is a clear over-bluff: solver strongly prefers checking this combo, with betting only in a smaller, mixed frequency and for a bit smaller than all-in, because BU’s range is too pair-heavy and our equity when called is poor.