Flop Analysis
A small continuation bet is mandatory here to protect our equity and extract value from Ace-high and smaller pocket pairs.
We must call the flop raise with our pocket pair; folding gives up too much equity against a range containing many spade draws.
A small continuation bet is mandatory here to protect our equity and extract value from Ace-high and smaller pocket pairs.
Folding here is a significant mistake. We have a pure call with our pocket pair, as we are comfortably ahead of the Button's semi-bluffs and air. **Ranges:** Button's raising range is heavily weighted toward spade draws like AsJs or Ts9s, which we currently beat. While they have some Kx value, we only need to be good about 29% of the time to continue. **Math:** We are getting 2.5:1 on a call, requiring roughly 29% equity. With over 44% equity against their raising range, folding is a massive theoretical leak that allows Villain to over-bluff us. **Plan:** By calling, we keep the pot manageable and force Villain to realize their draws. We can comfortably check-fold on spade turns but should look to bluff-catch on most brick runouts. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't let a single overcard scare you into folding a strong pocket pair when the pot odds are good and the board is draw-heavy.
Note: Folding is too tight; we have enough equity against spade draws and bluffs to justify a call at these odds.