QJo BB on QJ6r: Lead Paired Turns

Hero
Q♣J♦
Position
BB vs BTN
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
6♠ J♠ Q♥

When the board pairs and gives us a massive range advantage, we should lead out for value rather than checking to the aggressor.

Flop Analysis

Auto-played to reach this drill spot — you didn't act here, so it isn't scored.

Flop Analysis

Auto-played to reach this drill spot — you didn't act here, so it isn't scored.

Turn Analysis

Auto-played to reach this drill spot — you didn't act here, so it isn't scored.

River Analysis

After the turn goes check-check, we must bet for value on the river, though our sizing could be more optimized. **Board:** The 3s completes the flush, which is a concern, but BTN's turn check makes it much less likely they hold a completed spade draw. Our top two pair remains a very strong value hand against their range of one-pair Jacks and Queens. **Sizing:** While we bet 6.8BB (75% pot), a smaller sizing of 3.0BB is preferred to ensure we get called by hands like QTs or AJ. The larger sizing risks folding out the very hands we are trying to target, especially since the flush got there. **Math:** We have over 90% equity against the range that BTN arrives with after checking the turn. We are essentially only losing to slow-played flushes or the case 6x, making this a mandatory value bet. --- > **Takeaway:** On the river, prioritize a sizing that keeps your opponent's marginal bluff-catchers in the pot rather than swinging for the fences.

Key Concepts

  • 3.2
  • Villain Strong Advantage
  • OOP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK