Flop Analysis
Betting is preferred with top pair to protect against the many draws available on this wet texture. While we chose a smaller sizing, a larger 60% pot bet is more effective at charging hands like 87 or spade draws.
We must continue with middle pair when facing a small turn bet, as we have plenty of equity against a wide range of bluffs and draws.
Betting is preferred with top pair to protect against the many draws available on this wet texture. While we chose a smaller sizing, a larger 60% pot bet is more effective at charging hands like 87 or spade draws.
Checking is a sound frequency here as the Jack of spades is a dynamic card that completes flushes and improves many of the Big Blind's calling range.
Folding is a significant error here. We are getting excellent pot odds to call with a hand that still has roughly 57% equity against the opponent's betting range. **Math:** We need to call 3.9BB to win a total pot of 20.3BB, meaning we only need about 19% equity to continue. Our pair of sixes is well above this threshold, even against a range that includes completed flushes. **Ranges:** The Big Blind's range is wide and contains many semi-bluffs like gutshots (73o) or lower spade draws (87s) that we currently beat. By folding, we allow the opponent to profitably bluff with a massive portion of their air. **Plan:** If we call, we are looking to check-fold on most spade rivers or cards that complete the straight (like a 3, 4, or 7), but we can comfortably bluff-catch on brick rivers against their missed draws. --- > **Takeaway:** Never fold a pair when getting better than 4-to-1 odds unless the board is extremely coordinated and your hand is clearly crushed.
Note: Folding middle pair when facing a 31% pot bet is a massive over-fold; we have more than enough equity to continue.