Flop Analysis
C-betting small or checking are both viable strategies here. We hold a nut gutshot and two overcards to the middle pair, giving us enough equity to balance our range whether we choose to bet or check-call.
We must call the flop raise with our nut gutshot and overcards; folding surrenders too much equity against a range that includes many semi-bluffs.
C-betting small or checking are both viable strategies here. We hold a nut gutshot and two overcards to the middle pair, giving us enough equity to balance our range whether we choose to bet or check-call.
Folding is a significant mistake. We have a nut gutshot to the Broadway straight and our King and Jack often function as clean outs against the BB's semi-bluffs and smaller pairs. **Math:** We are getting 2.1:1 on a call, requiring roughly 32% equity. With our gutshot and overcards, we have approximately 47% equity against the BB's raising range, making this a mandatory continue. **Ranges:** The BB's raise includes many draws like flush draws (Qs9s, 5s4s) and weaker gutshots that we currently dominate. By folding, we allow the BB to profitably raise almost any two cards against our c-betting range. **Plan:** By calling, we keep the pot manageable and can comfortably evaluate on the turn. We are looking for a Queen to hit the nuts, or a King/Jack which may improve us to the best hand against their bluffs. --- > **Takeaway:** Never fold nut draws with overcard equity when getting good pot odds, even when facing aggression.
Note: Folding here is too tight; our nut gutshot and overcards provide more than enough equity to continue against a wide BB raising range.