While we have great blockers and equity, shoving the turn into a range that contains many made straights is a significant overplay.
Flop Analysis
Checking is the preferred play here, though betting small is a viable mix. We have the nut gutshot and a backdoor flush draw, but this board hits the caller's range very well.
**Ranges:** The CO caller has many hands like JTs, T9s, and QJs that connect strongly with this texture. Our range has a slight equity edge, but the nut advantage is neutral.
**Board:** This is a wet, connected texture where the 6s and Ts provide flush draw possibilities. It's a swingy board where many turn cards can drastically shift equity.
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> **Takeaway:** On wet broadway textures, lean toward checking your high-card draws to protect your range and realize equity.
Note: Sizing up to 2.8BB on this wet board is slightly too aggressive; checking or a smaller 20% pot sizing is preferred to manage the pot with a draw.
Turn Analysis
Shoving here is a major error. While we have a gutshot to the nuts, the 8c is a disastrous card that completes multiple straights for the Villain.
**Ranges:** Villain's range is now loaded with straights like 97s and Q9s, along with two-pair combos like JTs or J8s. By shoving, we only get called by hands that have us crushed and fold out the air we beat.
**Math:** With an SPR of 1.4, we have some leverage, but our 33% equity is not enough to justify an open shove into a range that has improved so significantly. We are essentially turning a hand with decent showdown value into a pure bluff against a range that won't fold better.
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> **Takeaway:** Avoid shoving draws when the board texture completes the most likely straights for your opponent's range.
Note: Shoving the turn is a massive overplay; the 8c completes many straights (97, Q9) in the Villain's range, making a check or smaller bet much higher EV.