On a dry, paired board, use large sizings to polarize your range and extract maximum value from pocket pairs with your overpair.
While betting is correct, the small sizing misses the strategic goal of this board. We should be using a large overbet to polarize our range.
Note: Small sizing on a dry paired board is a missed opportunity; an overbet (130% pot) better leverages our range advantage and forces Villain's pocket pairs into a tough spot.
We must continue to apply pressure. The 7c is a blank, and we need to build the pot to target Villain's mid-pocket pairs.
Note: Sizing up to an overbet is preferred to maximize value and set up a river shove; the medium sizing allows Villain to realize equity too cheaply.
Checking back the river is a significant mistake. Our overpair is effectively the nuts against Villain's capped range, and we must go for value. **Ranges:** Villain's range is heavily weighted toward pocket pairs like 88-JJ that cannot easily fold to a bet. We have a massive value advantage here as Villain rarely has 4x or 2x after calling two streets. **Sizing:** An overbet is the preferred line to maximize the pot. Since Villain is capped, we want to name a price that their bluff-catchers are forced to pay, rather than letting them see a cheap showdown. **Plan:** By checking, we lose the chance to stack Villain's remaining 90BB. Even if they occasionally show up with a slow-played full house, the frequency of their mid-pairs makes betting mandatory. --- > **Takeaway:** When your hand is at the top of your range and Villain is capped, don't check back—bet big to target their bluff-catchers.
Note: Checking back the river is a massive value loss; our overpair is a mandatory value bet against a range composed mostly of weaker pocket pairs.