Flop Analysis
C-betting small is a viable strategy here, though checking back to realize equity with our nut backdoor flush draw is slightly preferred. Betting targets SB's mid-pairs and high-card hands that missed.
We used our nut flush draw and range advantage to apply maximum pressure, though our sizing was overly aggressive for the situation.
C-betting small is a viable strategy here, though checking back to realize equity with our nut backdoor flush draw is slightly preferred. Betting targets SB's mid-pairs and high-card hands that missed.
While we have the nut flush draw, jamming for over 3x the recommended size is a significant mistake. We want to keep Villain's range wide and allow them to fold their air to a smaller bet while keeping the pot manageable if we miss. **Ranges:** SB's range is heavily weighted toward middle pocket pairs like JJ-TT and sets. By jamming, we isolate ourselves against their strongest hands like QQ or 77 and force out the high-card hands we currently beat. **Sizing:** The solver strongly prefers a small 25% pot bet (19.3BB). This sizing maintains high fold equity against SB's condensed range while leaving us with a comfortable river SPR if the flush completes. **Plan:** On diamond rivers, we have a trivial value shove; on bricks, we can comfortably check back or evaluate based on SB's river action, a flexibility we lose by jamming now. --- > **Takeaway:** With strong draws in low SPR pots, use small sizing to keep the opponent's folding range wide rather than jamming and isolating yourself against their best hands.
Note: Jamming is a massive over-sizing; a small bet (25% pot) achieves the same fold equity against the weak part of their range while preserving our stack when we miss.