Flop Analysis
Folding here is a major error. We have a gutshot to the nut straight and are getting 4:1 on a call while in position, which is more than enough to continue. **Math:** We need roughly 20% equity to call, and our hand has ~24% against the CO's range. When you factor in our ability to realize equity in position and potentially bluff later streets, this is a very profitable continue. **Ranges:** CO's small 1/3 pot bet is often a range-c-bet with hands like KJ, KT, or small pocket pairs. By holding the Jc and Tc, we block some of their natural straight draws like KJ or KT, meaning they have more air or weak pairs that we can outplay on later streets. **Plan:** We should call and look to hit a King to take the lead. If the board bricks and CO checks the turn, we can often take the pot away with a bet, leveraging our positional advantage. --- > **Takeaway:** Never fold nut gutshots to small bets when you have position; the combination of direct equity and positional leverage makes it a mandatory continue.
Note: Folding a nut gutshot to a 1/3 pot bet in position is a massive over-fold; you have the required equity and great implied odds.