Flop Analysis
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When the board pairs and Villain checks back the turn, our middle pair becomes a strong value candidate that should be bet for protection and thin value.
Auto-played to reach this drill spot — you didn't act here, so it isn't scored.
We have a clear continue here. 99 is too strong to fold to a single half-pot bet, especially with a backdoor spade draw. **Ranges:** Villain's 3-bet range contains many overcards like AK/AQ that will C-bet this texture. We beat their bluffs and some smaller pairs like 88-66. **Math:** Getting 3:1, we only need ~25% equity. With 52% equity against Villain's range, folding would be a massive mistake. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't fold mid-pairs to a single C-bet on low/middling boards; you have plenty of equity to realize.
The board pairing is generally better for the caller's range. Checking is correct to see what Villain does after their flop lead. **Board:** The second Ten is a great card for us. It reduces the number of Tx combinations Villain can have and makes it harder for them to have improved. **Ranges:** Villain's range is becoming polarized. By checking, we allow them to continue bluffing with hands like AsQs or KhQh while keeping the pot manageable. --- > **Takeaway:** On cards that favor your range, checking allows you to protect your marginal made hands and catch bluffs.
We should be betting here. After Villain checks back the turn, their range is capped, and our 99 has over 90% equity against their remaining holdings. **Ranges:** Villain's turn check-back heavily discounts overpairs like AA-JJ. They mostly have high-card air like AK/AQ or weak draws that missed. **Sizing:** A medium sizing (60% pot) targets Villain's A-high hands that might feel compelled to bluff-catch, while also protecting against their random equity. **Plan:** By checking, we lose the opportunity to get value from hands like AJ or KQ that might call a bet but will simply check back behind us. --- > **Takeaway:** When Villain caps their range by checking back the turn, look to lead the river for value with your medium-strength hands.
Note: Checking the river misses a significant value betting opportunity against a capped range; solver prefers betting 60% pot.