Flop Analysis
Folding here is a significant mistake. We have a very strong bluff-catcher that beats all of UTG's non-Ace air and smaller pocket pairs, and the price offered is too good to pass up. **Math:** We are getting 5.5:1 pot odds, requiring only 15.4% equity to continue. With ~60% equity against the field, folding JJ here is essentially throwing away a massive share of the pot. **Ranges:** UTG's small 22% pot bet is often a range-c-bet with hands like KQ, KJ, or middle pairs (TT-77). HJ's call is wide and doesn't necessarily mean they have an Ace; they can have 55, 77, or straight draws like 5h7h. **Position:** Being last to act is a huge advantage. We can see the turn action and decide whether to continue if the betting gets heavier, but we must realize our equity against this specific sizing. --- > **Takeaway:** Never fold premium pocket pairs to small c-bets on Ace-high boards when getting excellent pot odds.
Note: Folding JJ to a 22% pot bet is a massive over-fold; you have way too much equity to give up for this price.