Flop Analysis
Auto-played to reach this drill spot — you didn't act here, so it isn't scored.
We missed a clear value bet with a full house on the river after our turn lead got called.
Auto-played to reach this drill spot — you didn't act here, so it isn't scored.
Leading the turn is a viable exploit given the population's tendency to over-fold, though checking remains the GTO baseline to protect our range. **Ranges:** UTG's check-back on the flop caps them slightly, making it less likely they hold AA/KK/QQ, while our range contains more 44 and 77. **Board:** The King is a scare card that hits the top of UTG's range (AK/KQ), but it also gives us a reason to start building the pot with our set. **Math:** A 75% pot bet is a polar sizing that targets UTG's middle pairs like JJ-99 and gutshots like AJ/AT that might feel priced in to call once. --- > **Takeaway:** When the preflop raiser checks back a dry flop, you can occasionally lead turns to capitalize on their capped range.
Checking is a significant mistake; we have a full house and must bet for value against a range that is now heavily weighted toward bluff-catchers. **Ranges:** UTG's range is condensed into hands like KQ, AQ, and JJ-88. We beat almost everything they call with except rare combos of KK or QQ. **Sizing:** A small 33% pot bet (3.8BB) is ideal here to induce calls from Kx and pocket pairs that might fold to a larger polar sizing. **Plan:** By checking, we allow UTG to check back their marginal showdown value, losing out on a street of clear value with the near-nuts. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't check the top of your range on the river when the board pairs; you must bet to get paid by the villain's bluff-catchers.
Note: Checking a full house here is a major value loss; we should be betting small to target Villain's Kx and pocket pairs.