ATo BTN on K73r: C-Bet Small, Fold to Aggression

Hero
A♦T♠
Position
BTN vs CO
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
3♦ 7♥ K♠

We correctly leveraged our range advantage with a small flop c-bet, but over-bluffing the turn led to a necessary fold against a strong check-raise.

Flop Analysis

A small c-bet is highly effective here. We hold a massive range advantage on this King-high rainbow texture, allowing us to bet at a high frequency to fold out CO's air.

Turn Analysis

While betting is a viable mix, we should prefer a smaller sizing. Our hand has picked up a gutshot, but it still functions primarily as a semi-bluff that needs to maintain fold equity without over-committing.

Note: Sizing up to 75% pot is slightly too aggressive with just a gutshot; a 50% pot sizing is preferred to keep the range balanced.

Turn Analysis

Once check-raised, our hand is a pure fold. We are at the bottom of our range, and CO's range is now heavily weighted toward sets and two-pair combinations that have us crushed. **Ranges:** Villain's check-raise range is extremely strong, featuring sets like 77 and two-pair combos like KQ. We block some of their gutshot bluffs with our Ten. **Math:** Although we are getting 2.2:1, we only have ~20% equity against their value-heavy range, which is well below the 32% required to call. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't fall in love with a draw when the opponent shows significant strength on a board that hits their calling range.

Key Concepts

  • 5.6
  • Hero Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Dry Board
  • LEAN TOWARD AGGRESSION