Flop Analysis
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We should lean toward betting our strong combo draws on the turn to maximize fold equity and leverage our range advantage.
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A mandatory call with the second-nut flush draw and a gutshot; we have over 50% equity against CO's range.
We should lead here for a small sizing. The 2h is a blank that maintains our range advantage, and betting allows us to realize equity while denying it to Villain's overcards. **Ranges:** We have a significant value advantage (50% vs 32%) because we hold more sets and overpairs like TT-JJ that CO might check back on the flop. **Board:** The texture remains very wet; betting the turn with our combo draw (flush draw + double gutshot) puts maximum pressure on Villain's high-card air like AQ/AJ. **Sizing:** A 33% pot bet (13.6BB) is ideal here to keep Villain's range wide while setting up a comfortable river SPR for our polarized range. --- > **Takeaway:** On turn blanks where you retain a range advantage, use small leads with your strongest draws to maximize fold equity.
Note: Checking misses an opportunity to lead into a range we currently crush; betting small is higher EV with our massive draw.
Once we check and face a massive overbet, we are priced in to call with our combo draw given the pot odds and our high equity. **Math:** We need ~36% equity to call the 1.25x pot shove. With our flush draw and double gutshot, we have roughly 39% equity against a range of overpairs and better draws. **Blockers:** Holding the Ks is crucial as it blocks the second-nut flush and the 6s blocks some straight combinations (67s), making Villain's value range slightly narrower. --- > **Takeaway:** When facing an overbet with a monster draw, trust the math—if you have the required equity, you cannot fold.
Checking is fine, but shoving is a high-frequency mix to turn our missed draw into a bluff against Villain's capped-looking range. **Ranges:** CO's check-back on the river suggests they have a hand with showdown value that didn't want to bet-fold, like JJ or a weak 8x. **Plan:** By checking, we concede the pot to any pair. Shoving for our last 28BB into a 144BB pot only needs to work ~16% of the time to be profitable. --- > **Takeaway:** On the river, when your monster draw misses, consider if your remaining stack is small enough to generate the few folds needed to make a bluff profitable.