T7s BB on J84r: Defend the Double Gutshot

Hero
T♣7♣
Position
BB vs SB
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
4♦ 8♥ J♠

We must continue with our double gutshot on the turn; folding gives up too much equity against a polarized betting range.

Flop Analysis

Calling is standard here. We have a gutshot to the second-nut straight and overcards that can occasionally provide clean outs, making this a high-quality continue versus a large c-bet.

Turn Analysis

Folding here is a significant mistake. The 6h is a fantastic card for our specific hand, turning our simple gutshot into a double gutshot (any 5 or 9 gives us a straight), which provides enough equity to continue.

Note: Folding a double gutshot with overcard potential is too tight; we have roughly 20% raw equity and excellent implied odds if we hit.

Key Concepts

  • 6.2
  • Villain Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Dry Board
  • QcTc,QdTc