A5s UTG on T75r: Defend Bottom Pair Carefully

Hero
A♣5♣
Position
UTG vs CO
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
5♥ 7♠ T♠

We should call a flop c-bet with bottom pair and an Ace kicker, but fold when the turn brings an overcard and more aggression.

Flop Analysis

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Flop Analysis

Calling is the correct play with bottom pair and the best possible kicker. **Ranges:** Villain's range contains many overcards like AK and AQ that we currently beat, alongside overpairs like JJ-AA. We have a range advantage here (55% equity) because we hold all the sets (TT, 77, 55) while Villain often 3-bets those at a lower frequency. **Math:** We are getting 2.3:1 on a call, requiring 30% equity. Our hand has roughly 54% equity against Villain's c-betting range, making this a clear continue. --- > **Takeaway:** Bottom pair with an Ace kicker is too strong to fold to a single c-bet on a semi-wet board.

Turn Analysis

Checking is correct; the Queen is a better card for the 3-bettor's range.

Turn Analysis

Folding is the preferred move as our hand strength has plummeted relative to the board and Villain's range. **Board:** The Qd is a significant scare card that connects with Villain's AK/AJ gutshots and strengthens their KQ/AQ holdings. It makes our pair of 5s extremely vulnerable to a second barrel. **Ranges:** Villain is polarized here, betting large with overpairs (KK, AA) and top pairs (AQ), while mixing bluffs with hands like AsKs or AsJs. Our range is condensed and capped, mostly consisting of middle pairs and weak top pairs that struggle to call down. **Plan:** By folding, we avoid being put in a difficult river spot where we are essentially guessing against a range that has us crushed on value. --- > **Takeaway:** When an overcard hits the turn and the aggressor continues for a large sizing, weak pairs should be the first to hit the muck.

Key Concepts

  • 6.4
  • Hero Slight Advantage
  • OOP
  • Semi-Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK