Flop Analysis
Auto-played to reach this drill spot — you didn't act here, so it isn't scored.
Checking is mandatory on the river with a weak pair; leading into a range that contains full houses and straights is a massive EV loss.
Auto-played to reach this drill spot — you didn't act here, so it isn't scored.
While we have a gutshot and backdoor flush draw, calling a 67% pot bet is marginal; solver actually prefers folding or a high-frequency bluff-raise to capitalize on fold equity.
The 2s is a blank for our specific hand. We must check and evaluate versus UTG's continued aggression.
Facing a small 1/3 pot bet, we have the direct odds to peel with our gutshot, though we are at the bottom of our continuing range. **Math:** We are getting 4:1 on a call, requiring 20% equity. With a gutshot to a Ten-high straight and two overcards that might occasionally be good, we have just enough to continue. **Blockers:** Our Kh blocks some of UTG's KhTh and Kh7h semi-bluffs, slightly reducing the number of draws they are barreling. --- > **Takeaway:** When facing small sizing with a draw, use pot odds to justify a call even if your hand is weak.
Leading here is a significant error. We have almost no equity when called and we don't block the hands that UTG will raise for value. **Ranges:** UTG's range is polarized but contains many full houses (88, 66) and straights (75s) that checked back or barreled. By leading, we allow them to play perfectly, folding their air and raising their value. **Sizing:** A 33% pot lead (5.8BB) doesn't generate enough fold equity against UTG's overpairs like TT-AA, which are now just bluff-catchers but won't fold to this size. **Plan:** We should check-fold. Our hand has 8.7% equity against their range and functions poorly as a bluff because we block the straight draws (T-high) that UTG might have been bluffing with. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't 'donk' lead the river when the board pairs and you have a weak showdown hand; check and let the aggressor decide the price.
Note: Leading the river is a massive EV mistake (-21 EV); checking is mandatory as we have almost no fold equity and get crushed by UTG's value range.
Once raised, this is a trivial fold. We are at the absolute bottom of our range and beat nothing but a pure stone bluff. --- > **Takeaway:** When your thin lead gets raised on a paired board, fold immediately.