Flop Analysis
Checking is the preferred baseline, but betting small is a viable mix to pressure BTN's overcards and weak pocket pairs.
We should use our range advantage to barrel air on this board, but we must follow through with a river shove to maximize fold equity.
Checking is the preferred baseline, but betting small is a viable mix to pressure BTN's overcards and weak pocket pairs.
We should continue our aggression here. While the 8d is better for the caller's range, we have enough overcard equity and blockers to keep the pressure on.
Note: Sizing up to 25.5bb is slightly too large; a half-pot sizing (17.5bb) better balances our range while keeping SPR manageable for a river shove.
Checking is a significant mistake. Once we barrel the flop and turn with air, we must shove the river to fold out BTN's remaining one-pair hands. **Ranges:** The 9d is a dynamic card that completes several straights (T9, 69) and the diamond flush. While Villain has these, we also have all the overpairs and nutted draws that just got there, giving us the range leverage to shove. **Blockers:** Our Ah is a critical blocker. By holding the Ace, we make it less likely Villain has AJ or AXdd, increasing the likelihood they are sitting on a marginal pair that will fold to a shove. **Sizing:** With an SPR of 0.67, we are fully committed to a polarized strategy. Checking allows Villain to realize all their equity with hands like JT or 88 that would have faced a brutal decision against an all-in. --- > **Takeaway:** When you barrel two streets with air, you must be prepared to pull the trigger on the river when the board remains scary for Villain's bluff-catchers.
Note: Checking the river gives up all our fold equity; with an SPR under 1, we must shove to force folds from Villain's one-pair hands.