QTs BTN on K87r: Triple Barrel Bluffing

Hero
Q♣T♣
Position
BTN vs BB
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
7♥ 8♠ K♠

When we have the range advantage and the nuts are possible for us but not Villain, we must follow through with our bluffs.

Flop Analysis

Checking is the preferred play, but betting small is a viable alternative. We have no made hand or direct draw, but we hold relevant blockers to Villain's continuing range.

Turn Analysis

Betting here is a mix, but checking is slightly higher EV. We have picked up a gutshot, but the board is now extremely wet with both flushes and straights possible.

Note: Betting into a board that connects heavily with the defender's range is risky; checking back allows us to realize our gutshot equity for free.

River Analysis

Checking back is a significant mistake. On this runout, we have a massive range advantage and Villain is capped, making this a prime spot to jam our air.

Note: Failing to shove the river is a large EV loss. Our hand is the bottom of our range and we must use it to balance our value flushes and straights.

Key Concepts

  • 4.2
  • Hero Slight Advantage
  • IP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK