AQs BTN on 873r: Polarized River Bluffs

Hero
A♠Q♠
Position
BTN vs UTG
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
3♦ 7♥ 8♠

We should use our best high-card hands to bluff on boards where the opponent's range is capped and we have significant range advantage.

Flop Analysis

Checking back is a solid mix. While we have a range advantage, this board hits UTG's calling range (77, 88, 99-JJ) quite well, making a large bet or a check the preferred strategies.

Turn Analysis

Calling the small turn probe is a marginal mix; we are mostly folding here as our equity has dropped significantly on the Jack.

Note: Folding is the higher frequency play as we have no direct draws and are behind almost all of Villain's value range.

River Analysis

After UTG checks the river, they are heavily capped. Betting is a high-EV play to push them off their marginal one-pair hands like 44 or 99.

Key Concepts

  • 5.6
  • Villain Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK