Q9s BTN on T65r: Check Flop, Fold Turn

Hero
Q♣9♣
Position
BTN vs BB
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
5♦ 6♥ T♠

While we have a gutshot on the turn, we must fold to the check-raise as our hand lacks the equity to continue against a polarized range.

Flop Analysis

Auto-played to reach this drill spot — you didn't act here, so it isn't scored.

Turn Analysis

Betting the turn is a viable mix, but checking is slightly preferred to realize our equity and avoid getting blown off our gutshot by a check-raise. **Ranges:** The King is a great card for our range, but BB has many condensed hands like 6s4s or Td8h that won't fold to a single bet. By betting, we polarize ourselves and risk facing the exact aggression that occurred. **Board:** The board is semi-wet and connected; the Kd adds a flush draw and improves many of our overcards, but it also gives BB more check-raise bluffs. --- > **Takeaway:** When you have a draw with moderate showdown value IP, checking back often yields higher EV by ensuring you see the river.

Turn Analysis

Folding is the correct play here; even though we have a gutshot, the price offered against a check-raise is too poor given our low equity. **Math:** We need 33% equity to call, but our gutshot only has about 9% to hit the straight. Even accounting for our Queen-high occasionally being good or hitting a pair, we fall well short of the continuing threshold. **Sizing:** BB's check-raise is a pot-sized click-back that effectively commits the stacks. At an SPR of 0.8, we are essentially playing for the rest of our stack, and our hand is too weak to stack off. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't chase gutshots against significant aggression when the pot odds and SPR don't support the call.

Key Concepts

  • 5.0
  • Hero Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD AGGRESSION