A8s BTN on J94r: Don't Bluff the Unbluffable

Hero
A♠8♠
Position
BTN vs LJ
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
4♠ 9♠ J♥

We should fold our missed flush draw on the river; raising into a range that just completed its draws is a massive mistake.

Flop Analysis

We have a massive range advantage here. A small sizing (25% pot) is preferred to keep their wide range in while we realize equity with our nut flush draw.

Note: Sizing up to half-pot is unnecessary; a smaller bet achieves the same fold equity while protecting our stack depth.

Turn Analysis

When LJ leads into us for a small sizing, we have a trivial call. We are getting 5:1 and have the nut flush draw, which has plenty of equity to continue.

River Analysis

Raising the river is a significant error. Our flush draw missed, and the 6h completed the backdoor heart flush, which LJ has more of than we do.

Note: Raising a missed draw into a range that just improved is a high-variance play that loses to almost all of Villain's calling range.

Key Concepts

  • <2
  • Hero Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Semi-Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD AGGRESSION