99 SB on 763fd: Overpair Over-Fold

Hero
9♥9♠
Position
SB vs BU
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
7♣ 3♠ 6♣

Folding an overpair on a low board in a 3-bet pot is a massive mistake; at this SPR, we are mathematically committed to the pot.

Flop Analysis

Betting is acceptable, but checking is slightly preferred to protect our range on a board that connects well with the caller's range. Our sizing is a bit large for this texture.

Flop Analysis

Folding here is a significant error. We have an overpair on a low board with an SPR of 1; we are priced in to get the money in against draws and worse pairs.

Note: Folding an overpair here is a massive over-fold. We have 56% equity against the raising range and only need 33% to continue.

Key Concepts

  • Protection Priority
  • Neutral Range
  • OOP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK