AQo CO on T85r: Commit Or Check Turn

Flop Analysis

C-betting here with pure air is mandatory; our range has the advantage and AQ with no draw is a classic low-EV bluff candidate. The only tweak is that the solver wants us to go slightly smaller. **Ranges:** As the 4-bettor we hold more overpairs and strong Tx; BU has capped bluff-catchers and some traps, so denying equity and leveraging our range edge with a small bet is very effective. **Sizing:** With ~2 SPR, the strategy is to use a small, high-frequency bet (~25% pot); our 13BB is still small but a touch larger than the preferred 10.3BB, which slightly over-invests with a hand that beats nothing. --- > **Takeaway:** On dry, low-connected 4-bet pots where we have range advantage, use a small, frequent c-bet with our air and avoid bloating the pot unnecessarily.

Note: Betting is correct, but sizing a bit larger than the ~25% pot that the range prefers marginally over-commits chips with a pure bluff.

Turn Analysis

Once the 9 hits and SPR drops close to 1, the decision with AQ + gutshot should be to either jam or check; the small 20BB bet sits in the middle and performs poorly versus a competent BU range. **Board:** The turn connects the middling region (76, J7, sets, two-pair) and removes some of our range advantage; with a shallow SPR on a now-wet texture, strategies simplify toward polar jam-or-check lines rather than thin probing. **Ranges:** Our range still has strong overpairs and sets that happily jam, while BU has many draws and medium-strength hands that are indifferent; AQ with a gutshot is in the bluff bucket that benefits from full-pressure jams or checking, not from a medium stab that reopens the betting. **Math:** Solver mixes this combo between all-in (~66%) and check (~34%), essentially never using a small bet — our 20BB bet invests more than a check while failing to maximize fold equity like a shove does. --- > **Takeaway:** With SPR around 1 on dynamic turns, avoid small bets with your bluffs — either jam to maximize fold equity or check and realize your equity.

Note: The small turn bet is off-plan: at this shallow SPR the strategy is to jam or check, and betting 20BB creates an awkward spot where BU can raise and punish us.

Turn Analysis

After we take the small-bet line and BU raises all-in over it, folding AQ high plus a gutshot is correct despite attractive pot odds, because BU’s raising range is very value-heavy against our perceived strength.