AQo CO on T85r: Don’t Block-Bet, Commit

Hero
A♣Q♥
Position
CO vs BU
Pot
4-Bet Pot
Flop
8♦ T♣ 5♠

Once we 4-bet pre and c-bet this flop, the turn is an SPR-1 commitment spot — either shove or check, but don’t bet/fold getting 4:1 with equity.

Flop Analysis

C-betting small is mandatory with our hand class and range advantage; using a slightly larger small bet than the solver’s 25% is a minor deviation but keeps the same strategy. **Ranges:** As the 4-bettor we have all the strong overpairs and top pairs, while BU has more capped hands and misses this texture more; AQ high with no draw sits at the bottom of our range and is a pure bluff. **Board:** Ten-high, dry, unpaired and rainbow keeps our overpairs very comfortable and doesn’t help BU’s suited connectors or broadways as much, so small, high-frequency betting prints. **Sizing:** Solver prefers around 25% pot; our ~31% pot still leverages range advantage, but slightly increases risk with air and bloats the pot a touch more than necessary. --- > **Takeaway:** In 4-bet pots on dry, low/mid boards, use the small c-bet with our entire betting range, especially with pure air like AQ high.

Note: Betting is correct, but the optimal size is closer to 25% pot; 31% works, just pays a bit more with pure air.

Turn Analysis

With SPR ≈1 and a gutshot after our flop c-bet gets called, this is a spot to either shove or check; the small turn stab is the unhealthy middle option. **Ranges:** Once BU calls flop, their range is pairs, some strong draws, and a few floats; our range still contains overpairs and top sets, so we’re not capped and can comfortably polarize between all-in and check. **SPR:** With around 1x pot behind, the turn is effectively the commitment street — splitting our range with a small bet leaves us exposed to raises and under-realizes equity with our semi-bluffs. **Plan:** AQ with a gutshot is a classic candidate to go into the shove branch: we maximize fold equity vs one-pair hands and ensure we realize our equity when called instead of facing a raise and a tough decision. --- > **Takeaway:** In low-SPR turn spots after 4-betting, commit with strong value and best draws by shoving or check, not with small block bets.

Note: Betting small instead of shoving or checking creates an awkward spot with SPR ≈1 and opens us up to getting raised off our equity.

Turn Analysis

Once we bet and face a raise, folding with a gutshot and excellent pot odds is too tight; we’re priced in after choosing this line. **Math:** We are getting roughly 4:1 (need about 20% equity) to continue; our gutshot alone plus the chance that overcards are live versus some bluffs and thin value hands will clear that threshold. **Ranges:** BU’s raise is very strong at NL200 and underbluffed in practice, but they still contain some semi-bluffs and thinner value that we can outdraw often enough at this price. **Plan:** The mistake started with the small turn bet — after that, we should treat our hand as a semi-bluff that must continue facing a raise given this price, rather than folding and surrendering equity. --- > **Takeaway:** If we choose a small bet and then get raised in a low-SPR pot, we can’t fold strong draws getting 4:1 — either commit earlier or call it off.

Note: Bet/folding turn after choosing a small stab wastes our equity and ignores the very favorable pot odds.

Key Concepts

  • 2.1
  • Hero Strong Advantage
  • OOP
  • Dry Board
  • LEAN TOWARD AGGRESSION