Flop Analysis
Checking bottom pair is the most robust play here. We have some showdown value and a backdoor flush draw, but we aren't strong enough to bet for value or fold out better hands.
Maintain pot control with bottom pair on dynamic boards; over-betting the turn with marginal equity is a significant error.
Checking bottom pair is the most robust play here. We have some showdown value and a backdoor flush draw, but we aren't strong enough to bet for value or fold out better hands.
Betting 2.5x the pot with bottom pair is a massive overplay. We should check to realize our equity and bluff-catch, as this sizing only gets called by hands that crush us. **Ranges:** BTN's range is condensed after checking back the flop, containing many Ax, Tx, and 9x hands. By over-betting, we isolate ourselves against the top of their range while folding out the air we beat. **Sizing:** A 14.5BB bet into a 6.1BB pot is extremely polarized. Bottom pair is never a candidate for this sizing; we want to use this for nutted hands like straights or sets, balanced with high-equity draws. **Math:** Our hand has roughly 45% equity, which is plenty to check-call or check-fold depending on the price, but not enough to turn into a massive bluff. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't turn marginal showdown value into a massive bluff; use large sizings only for polarized ranges.
Note: The massive over-bet on the turn is a significant error; bottom pair should check to control the pot and realize equity.
Checking is mandatory after the turn action. The board pairing the Ace improves many of the hands BTN called the turn with, and our hand is now a pure bluff-catcher in a bloated pot. **Board:** The second Ace is a neutral-to-bad card for us. While it makes it less likely BTN has an Ace, it also means any Ace they do have now has trips, and the 78 straight is still possible. **Plan:** We are in a 'check-fold' state against any significant aggression. Having bloated the pot on the turn, we have destroyed our SPR, making any river decision difficult if BTN bets. --- > **Takeaway:** When the board pairs the high card on the river after a large turn bet, your marginal made hands become pure checks.