Flop Analysis
Calling is mandatory here with bottom pair. We have over 50% equity against the Small Blind's wide c-betting range and are getting excellent odds to see a turn.
We should continue with our pair of fours on the flop and turn given the excellent pot odds, but the river becomes a close decision as straights complete.
Calling is mandatory here with bottom pair. We have over 50% equity against the Small Blind's wide c-betting range and are getting excellent odds to see a turn.
We must continue calling. While the 3s is a dynamic card that brings straight and flush draws, our pair of fours still beats all of the Small Blind's air and semi-bluffs. **Ranges:** The Small Blind's range is polarized between strong top pairs+ and various draws like 56s, 68s, or spade backdoors. We beat their pure bluffs and some gutshots. **Math:** We only need about 19% equity to call this 1/4 pot bet. With 35% equity against their betting range, this is a very profitable continue. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't fold pairs to small bets on the turn when you are getting high pot odds and the board hasn't drastically changed.
Folding is a reasonable deviation, though calling is slightly preferred. The 2c completes the wheel (A5) and 56, making our pair of fours a very weak bluff-catcher. **Board:** The runout is highly connected. While the flush didn't get there, A5 and 56 now beat us, and the Small Blind's triple-barrel range is often value-heavy. **Blockers:** We don't block any of the Small Blind's primary bluffs (like missed spade draws), which makes calling more attractive in theory, but the low EV of the call makes folding acceptable. --- > **Takeaway:** On highly connected rivers, bottom pair loses most of its value and can be folded if you suspect the opponent isn't bluffing enough.