Flop Analysis
Top pair on a semi-wet board is a frequent c-bet. We want to extract value from 8x, 77, and various straight draws (JT, QJ, T7s).
We missed a mandatory turn value bet with two pair, but correctly called the river check-raise given our strong hand and excellent pot odds.
Top pair on a semi-wet board is a frequent c-bet. We want to extract value from 8x, 77, and various straight draws (JT, QJ, T7s).
Checking back here is a significant mistake; we must bet for value and protection on this highly connected turn. **Ranges:** Our two pair is near the top of our range. SB has many hands that will call a bet but check-fold to a river brick, such as straight draws (JT, T6s) or pair+draw combos (87s, A8o). **Board:** The 7s is a double-edged sword. While it gives us two pair, it completes several straights (JT, 65, T6). However, we still have over 80% equity and need to charge the remaining draws. **Plan:** By checking, we lose the chance to build a pot while our hand is most likely ahead. We also allow SB to realize equity for free on a board where many river cards can kill our action or outdraw us. --- > **Takeaway:** When you improve to a strong two pair on a wet board, prioritize betting to extract value from a range that is still wide and drawing.
Note: Checking back two pair on a highly connected turn misses massive value against SB's draws and weaker pairs.
After checking the turn, we must bet the river for value when SB checks again. The 2d is a total brick.
We must call the check-raise. While the raise looks polar, our hand is too strong to fold given the price we are getting. **Math:** We need roughly 31% equity to call. SB's line is strange; they checked twice and then min-raised the river, which can occasionally be a slowplayed straight, but also includes missed spade draws or 'clicked' bluffs. **Blockers:** We don't block any missed spade draws, making it more likely SB could be turning a hand like QsJs or KsTs into a bluff after we showed weakness on the turn. **Ranges:** SB's range is somewhat capped by the turn check, though some players trap. We beat all missed draws and thin value bets like A9 or 87 that SB might overplay. --- > **Takeaway:** When facing a small river raise with a top-of-range hand, the pot odds usually dictate a call unless the board is extremely coordinated for the opponent.