While the board is scary, our middle pair is too strong to fold against a small river bet after checking back the turn.
Betting is fine, but the sizing is too large. On this texture, we prefer a smaller 33% pot sizing to keep the SB's range wide and maximize our range advantage.
Note: Sizing is too large; a smaller bet (1.7BB) allows us to bet more frequently and puts SB's marginal hands in a tougher spot.
Checking back is the correct play after the turn completes the flush and straight draws. We improve to second pair, which has high showdown value but cannot comfortably bet for value against a range that now contains many flushes and straights.
Folding here is a significant mistake. We have a pure bluff-catcher that beats all of SB's missed straight draws and turned air, and the price we are getting is too good to pass up. **Math:** We are getting 2.8:1 on a call, meaning we only need to be right about 26% of the time. Given SB's check-call on the flop and check on the turn, they have plenty of missed draws (like QJ, JT, or 6x) that must bluff to win. **Ranges:** By checking the turn, we protected our range and kept SB's bluffs in. If we fold second pair for this price, we are over-folding and allowing SB to print money with any two cards. **Blockers:** Our Kd is a neutral card here, but our 7d is actually a decent card to hold as it doesn't block the spade draws SB would be bluffing with. --- > **Takeaway:** When you check back a turn to pot control, you must be prepared to bluff-catch on most river bricks when offered good pot odds.
Note: Folding second pair to a 35% pot bet is too tight; we need to call to prevent being exploited by missed draws.