KTo BB on Q86r: Over-Bluffing The Ace

Hero
K♣T♠
Position
BB vs SB
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
6♦ 8♥ Q♠

While turn aggression is sound, firing a second bullet on the Ace river with K-high is over-bluffing against a range that contains many Ax and Qx hands.

Flop Analysis

Calling is the preferred play here. We have two overcards to the middle of the board and excellent pot odds to see a turn in position.

Turn Analysis

When SB checks, we should stab frequently. Our hand has no showdown value but retains decent equity, making it a prime semi-bluff candidate to fold out SB's air.

River Analysis

Checking back is the correct play. The Ace is a poor card to bluff because it hits a significant portion of the SB's calling range that checked the turn.

Note: Betting the river is a mistake; the Ace improves many of Villain's turn-calling hands (like Ax) and we don't block enough of their continuing range.

Key Concepts

  • 11.2
  • Villain Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Dry Board
  • Ts9h,JdTs