We should bet small on the flop and turn to protect our equity with middle pair before the board gets too scary.
Betting small is preferred to checking. Our middle pair needs protection against overcards and draws, and we can easily get value from BTN's floats like JT, QJ, or lower pairs.
Note: Checking allows BTN to realize equity for free; a small bet (33% pot) is better for protection and thin value.
After checking the flop, we should almost always bet the turn. The 4c is a total brick, and our hand is still ahead of most of BTN's range that checked back the flop.
Note: Checking again is too passive; we should lead for a small size to deny equity to BTN's high cards and draws.
Once we check and face a bet, calling is mandatory. We have plenty of equity against a range that includes spade draws and straight draws like JT or 86s. **Math:** We are getting 2.4:1 on a call, requiring roughly 30% equity. Our middle pair has over 60% equity against BTN's polarized betting range here. **Ranges:** BTN's bet represents either a King, a slow-played monster, or a semi-bluff. Since we checked twice, BTN will be stabbing with many draws that we currently beat. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't fold middle pair on a brick turn after checking; you are still high enough in your range to bluff-catch.
Checking is the only play on this Ace river. The Ace is a terrible card for our specific hand as it hits the portion of BTN's range that would float the flop or turn (Ax).
Despite the Ace being a bad card, we are forced to call this bet due to the extremely low SPR and the fact that we don't block any of the missed draws. **Blockers:** We hold the Qd and 9d, which means we do not block any of the missed spade draws (like QsJs or JsTs). This makes it more likely BTN is bluffing with those specific combinations. **Math:** The pot is offering us 2:1 odds. While the Ace is a scare card, BTN's line of checking the flop and then betting turn/river often contains missed draws that are forced to bluff when the board doesn't help them. **Position:** Being OOP, we are capped after calling the turn, but the price is simply too good to fold a hand that still beats all of BTN's air. --- > **Takeaway:** In low SPR situations, you must call down with your best bluff-catchers if you don't block the opponent's primary drawing range.
Note: Folding is a mistake at this SPR; we beat all missed draws and the price offered requires us to be right only 33% of the time.