Flop Analysis
Checking the entire range is standard here. UTG has a massive range advantage on King-high boards, and we need to protect our checking range.
While we have a gutshot, leading into the preflop raiser on a paired board is often unnecessary and gets punished by their strong King-high range.
Checking the entire range is standard here. UTG has a massive range advantage on King-high boards, and we need to protect our checking range.
Calling is a fine mix with our gutshot. We have enough equity to continue against a 2/3 pot bet, especially with the potential to bluff later streets.
Leading (donking) the turn is a significant deviation. While the 6c is better for our range than UTG's, solver prefers checking to let UTG continue bluffing or to realize our equity cheaply. **Ranges:** We have more 6x in our range than UTG, which gives us a lead frequency, but 87o is a weak candidate for this sizing. UTG still holds all the AA/AK/KK combos that we lack. **Sizing:** If we do lead, a small 33% pot sizing is preferred to keep their range wide and maximize the efficiency of our semi-bluff. Our 75% pot lead is too polar and invites the raise we faced. --- > **Takeaway:** Avoid large leads on paired turns when you have a draw; checking allows you to realize equity or catch bluffs more effectively.
Note: Leading for a large sizing is an overplay; checking is higher EV to realize our gutshot equity.
Once we are raised, our hand is a pure fold. We are getting a decent price, but our equity is abysmal against a range that is now heavily weighted toward trips or better. **Math:** We need ~32% equity to call, but we only have about 14% against a range that raises the turn. We are essentially drawing to 4 outs (the 5s) which may not even be clean if UTG has a full house. **Blockers:** Our 8 and 7 don't block any of the value range (6x, Kx) and actually block some of the straight draws UTG might be semi-bluffing with (75s, 85s). --- > **Takeaway:** Don't chase gutshots against turn raises, especially when your own lead has already narrowed the opponent's range to strength.