Flop Analysis
Checking is the standard play here. We have middle pair and a massive combo draw, making this a perfect hand to check-call or check-raise.
We used a massive combo draw to pressure a capped range, but overplayed our marginal showdown value on the river.
Checking is the standard play here. We have middle pair and a massive combo draw, making this a perfect hand to check-call or check-raise.
Raising is a high-EV play with our specific holding. We have enough equity to never be in bad shape when called, and we can fold out better hands like 88-TT or weak 7x.
The 5h is a complex card that pairs the board; checking is preferred to realize our equity and protect our range. **Ranges:** UTG's calling range on the flop is quite condensed to overpairs, 7x, and draws. When the board pairs, our 6x loses some relative strength against their overpairs, but we still have massive draw equity. **Board:** The pairing of the 5 doesn't change the straight or flush possibilities, but it does introduce full house potential for hands like 75s or 65s which UTG might have. **Math:** With an SPR under 1, we are effectively committed if we bet. Checking allows us to see a river for free or check-jam to maximize fold equity with our draws. --- > **Takeaway:** On paired turns after check-raising the flop, lean toward checking marginal made hands that still have significant draw equity.
Note: Betting here is slightly over-aggressive; checking allows us to realize our massive equity more safely.
Checking is mandatory on the river. Our 6s and 3s have improved to two pair, which has significant showdown value but cannot realistically be bet for value. **Ranges:** UTG's range is heavily weighted toward overpairs (88-AA) and 7x. By shoving, we only get called by hands that beat us (straights, trips, or better two pairs) and fold out the air we already beat. **Blockers:** We block some 6x and 3x, but those aren't the hands UTG is calling a shove with anyway. We want UTG to have missed draws like AJss or KQss that might bluff if we check. **Sizing:** Shoving for less than 15% of the pot is essentially a clicking-buttons action. It doesn't generate fold equity against a 7 and it doesn't get value from anything worse. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't turn showdown value into a bluff for a tiny sizing; check-call or check-fold based on the price and villain's tendencies.
Note: Shoving the river with two pair here is a mistake; you fold out everything you beat and only get called by better hands.