76s UTG+1 on T94fd: Flopped Draw, Rivered Straight

Flop Analysis

Checking is mandatory with just high card, a gutshot, and a backdoor flush draw — we’re the preflop aggressor but this wet texture and our low-equity hand both point to range checking. **Ranges:** Neither side has a big range advantage and CO has plenty of Tx, 9x, and overpairs, while our hand sits in the lower-mid of our range. **Board:** The connected, two-tone board heavily rewards made hands and strong draws; betting our weak draw would burn EV and overbluff this node. --- > **Takeaway:** With weak draws on wet 3-bet pots OOP, prioritize checking and realizing equity instead of forcing c-bets.

Turn Analysis

Solver treats this as a close mix between checking and small betting with second pair plus a gutshot, so our small lead is reasonable but not mandatory. **Ranges:** After flop checks through, CO has fewer strong overpairs and top pairs than at flop, while we’ve improved to second pair plus draw, moving toward the mid of our range. **Board:** The 7 connects the board further and introduces made straights (68, J8) and more draws; it improves us but also strengthens portions of CO’s range. **Sizing:** When betting, the solver prefers a small stab around 25–30% pot, exactly the kind of size we used, to protect equity and deny overcards without bloating the pot. --- > **Takeaway:** With medium-strength hands plus draws OOP, mix between check and small bet rather than committing to big protection lines.

Turn Analysis

Calling the turn raise is correct — second pair plus a gutshot and good pot odds make this a clear continue. **Ranges:** CO’s raise contains strong value (Tx, straights, some two pair) but also semi-bluffs with draws; our hand is in the upper-mid of our continuing range, not a bluff-catcher we should dump. **Math:** We’re getting about 2.2:1 and need ~31% equity; with a pair plus a gutshot on this texture we comfortably clear that requirement, especially with implied value when we improve. **Plan:** Call turn, then on rivers be ready to continue on safe cards and re-evaluate on cards that heavily favor CO’s raising range. --- > **Takeaway:** Versus turn raises at good pot odds, don’t fold medium-strength hands that still have real draw equity.

River Analysis

Checking river with the made straight is fully in line with the solver’s mixed plan — OOP at shallow SPR, we can either check to bluff-catch / induce or sometimes jam, and checking keeps our range protected. **Ranges:** CO has the range and nut advantage here; they can arrive with higher straights and strong value more often, so we don’t want to range-donk this river. **Plan:** By checking most of our range, including some very strong hands, we allow CO to bet their bluffs and keep our own checking range from being capped at bluff-catchers. --- > **Takeaway:** Even with strong hands at shallow SPR, it’s fine to check OOP when villain’s range is stronger and we want to protect our checking range.

River Analysis

Calling is never bad with a straight at this price, but solver prefers mostly jamming over the river bet to extract full value from worse and deny equity to hands that can outdraw us if stacks go in later. **Ranges:** CO is polarized when betting this sizing — strong value (including some higher straights) and bluffs — while our hand sits toward the top of our range and is strong enough to play for stacks. **Math:** We’re getting ~2.9:1 and need ~26% equity; with a straight versus a polarized range we comfortably have that, and shoving captures additional EV from calls by two pair, sets, and some worse straights. **Plan:** From a GTO standpoint, this combo should mostly shove and occasionally just call; in practice, if CO overfolds to raises, jamming becomes even better. --- > **Takeaway:** When you river a strong but not nut hand near the top of your range versus a polarized bet and have good pot odds, look for value-raises rather than defaulting to call.

Note: We took the lower-variance route by only calling with a very strong hand where solver mostly prefers shoving for additional value.