Flop Analysis
Checking is the only play here. We have a strong draw, but as the caller, we check our entire range to the preflop aggressor.
We must continue with our open-ended straight draw on the turn; folding against a medium sizing gives up too much equity and over-folds our range.
Checking is the only play here. We have a strong draw, but as the caller, we check our entire range to the preflop aggressor.
Calling the large c-bet is standard with an open-ended straight draw. We have enough direct equity to continue even against polarized sizing.
Checking is correct. The board pairing the Ten is better for our range than the BTN's, but we still lack a lead and should look to realize our equity.
Folding here is a significant mistake. We have an open-ended straight draw and are getting excellent pot odds to see a river card. **Math:** We need roughly 26% equity to call. With 8 clean outs to a straight, we have about 17% direct equity, but we also beat BTN's pure bluffs (like QJ/KJ) and can occasionally win on 8 or 9 rivers. **Ranges:** BTN's sizing is medium, and we cannot fold a hand as strong as an OESD. If we fold 98 here, we are folding nearly 50% of our range, allowing BTN to bluff with any two cards profitably. **Plan:** By calling, we set up a river where we can check-fold if we miss or check-shove/lead if we hit. Folding now leaves too much money on the table given the SPR. --- > **Takeaway:** Never fold an open-ended straight draw on the turn when getting nearly 3-to-1 odds; you are mathematically required to continue.
Note: Folding an open-ended straight draw when facing a ~55% pot bet is a massive over-fold. You have the required equity and implied odds to call.