Flop Analysis
Checking is the preferred strategy here to protect our range on a board that connects well with the Button's flatting range. Betting small is a viable mix, but it invites the aggression we faced.
While checking is preferred on this board, folding to a small raise with a strong middle pair is a significant mistake given the pot odds.
Checking is the preferred strategy here to protect our range on a board that connects well with the Button's flatting range. Betting small is a viable mix, but it invites the aggression we faced.
Folding here is a major error; we have a mandatory call with a hand that retains significant equity against a wide semi-bluffing range. **Math:** We need roughly 28% equity to call, and our hand has over 50% against the Button's raising range. Folding here allows the opponent to profitably raise any two cards, completely ignoring Minimum Defense Frequency (MDF). **Ranges:** The Button can raise with many draws like 67s, 78s, or A3s/A2s, all of which we currently beat. By folding, we surrender the pot to hands we are ahead of and fail to realize our equity on safe turn cards. **Plan:** We should call and evaluate turns. We improve to a set on any 7, and many turns (like an 8 or 9) are neutral enough to allow us to continue bluff-catching against a polarized range. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't over-fold middle pairs to small raises on semi-wet boards; you need very little equity to make the call profitable.
Note: Folding 77 here is too tight; the pot odds are excellent and we are ahead of many of Villain's semi-bluffs and draws.