Q9s UTG1 on K92r: Sizing Up With Trips

Hero
Q♣9♣
Position
UTG1
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
2♠ 9♥ K♠

While we correctly value bet our trips, we should use much larger sizing on the turn and river to maximize value on a wet board.

Flop Analysis

Betting small or medium is effective here. We hold second pair with a strong kicker, which needs protection from overcards and draws while extracting value from weaker pairs.

Turn Analysis

We have improved to trips, but our sizing is far too small. On a board where the flush draw has completed and we have a massive hand, we need to charge draws and extract value from Kx.

Note: Sizing is too small; solver prefers a large bet (80% pot) to maximize value and protect against the completed flush and remaining draws.

River Analysis

On the river, we should be looking to play for stacks. Our hand is near the top of our range, and after the turn sizing mistake, shoving is the best way to recover value.

Note: Betting half-pot is a missed opportunity; with an SPR of 1.6, we should shove to maximize value against Kx and bluff-catchers.

Key Concepts

  • 8.4
  • Hero Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Semi-Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD AGGRESSION