Flop Analysis
Checking top pair here is a high-frequency play to protect our range on a board that doesn't heavily favor the preflop raiser.
While checking the flop is fine, the turn raise-shove is an overplay that forces out bluffs and only gets called by better hands.
Checking top pair here is a high-frequency play to protect our range on a board that doesn't heavily favor the preflop raiser.
Stabbing small on the turn is acceptable after the flop goes check-check, though checking remains the preferred strategy to manage the pot.
Shoving over the raise is a significant mistake; we should call to keep Villain's bluffs in and re-evaluate on the river. **Ranges:** When BTN raises our turn lead, they are polarized between straights (97s) and semi-bluffs like diamond draws or J9. By shoving, we fold out all the bluffs we beat and only get called by hands that have us crushed. **Math:** We are getting 2.6:1 to call, needing only 28% equity. Our two pair has roughly 90% equity against a balanced range, making this a mandatory continue, but calling preserves the most EV. **Sizing:** Shoving for 12.7BB into a 13BB pot is unnecessary. We are already pot-committed; calling allows Villain to potentially fire again on the river with air. --- > **Takeaway:** When you have a strong but non-nutted hand and the SPR is low, call raises to keep bluffs in rather than shoving and isolating yourself against the nuts.
Note: Shoving over the raise is an overplay; calling is much higher EV as it keeps Villain's bluffs in and avoids isolating against straights.