22 BTN on AQ7r: Don't Miss The Value Flush

Hero
2♦2♠
Position
BTN vs BB
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
7♠ Q♠ A♠

While checking back the flop and turn with a small pair and a draw is standard, we must bet for value once we river a flush.

Flop Analysis

Checking back is the preferred play. While we have a spade for the flush draw, our hand has very little showdown value and checking allows us to realize our equity for free.

Turn Analysis

The turn is a total brick. We continue to check back to keep the pot small and see a cheap river with our underpair and flush draw.

River Analysis

Checking back the river is a significant mistake. We have improved to a flush on a four-spade board, and while our flush is low, it is still a massive favorite against the BB's range. **Ranges:** BB is extremely capped after checking three streets. They would have bet most flushes or strong top pairs earlier; we now beat all their Ax, Kx, and non-spade hands that might feel forced to bluff-catch. **Sizing:** A medium sizing (65% pot) is ideal. It targets BB's marginal made hands like the Js or Ts that can't fold to a single bet on the river but would have folded to a larger polar sizing. **Blockers:** Holding the 2s is actually beneficial as it doesn't block any of the higher spades (Js, Ts, 9s) that BB might use to call a value bet. --- > **Takeaway:** When you improve to a strong made hand on the river against a capped opponent, you must bet to extract value from their bluff-catchers.

Note: Checking back a flush on the river misses a mandatory value bet against a capped range.

Key Concepts

  • Multi-Street Play
  • Hero Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK