Flop Analysis
Checking is the preferred play here. While we have a gutshot and a pair, this low, connected board hits the BB's defending range very well.
While checking the turn is a standard range protection move, checking the river with a straight is a significant value loss on a board with no possible flushes.
Checking is the preferred play here. While we have a gutshot and a pair, this low, connected board hits the BB's defending range very well.
Easy call getting over 4:1. We have enough equity with our pair and gutshot to continue against a small bet.
Checking the turn after binking the straight is correct to protect our range. **Ranges:** We have a significant amount of air and weak pairs that must check here. By checking our straights, we prevent BB from over-bluffing when we show weakness. **Board:** The 4s is a massive card for us, but it also completes 58 for the BB. Since the board is rainbow, we don't have to worry about flushes yet. --- > **Takeaway:** When the nuts roll off on the turn OOP, checking keeps your range protected and allows Villain to continue bluffing.
Raising is mandatory once BB bets. We need to build the pot now while the board is still relatively clean. **Sizing:** A larger raise is preferred to maximize value and set up a river shove. Our sizing was a bit small, but the intent to raise for value is correct. **Math:** We have nearly 90% equity against BB's betting range. We are only losing to exactly 85 (which BB has few combos of) or a slow-played set. --- > **Takeaway:** Don't just call with straights on wet turns; raise to extract value from two-pairs and sets before the board gets scarier.
Checking the river is a mistake. We have a straight on a board where no flush is possible and should be betting for value. **Ranges:** BB's range is condensed to pairs and missed draws after calling the turn raise. We have the nut advantage and should leverage it with a bet. **Sizing:** Solver loves an overbet here to target BB's 7x, 9x, and sets. By checking, we allow BB to check back their medium-strength hands for free. --- > **Takeaway:** On the river, if you have a straight and no flush is possible, you must bet to extract value from the middle of Villain's range.
Note: Checking the river misses a massive value betting opportunity with a straight; we should be leading for a large size.
Once we check and BB bets, we have a trivial call. We are beating everything except 85 and 8T.