Flop Analysis
Checking is mandatory as the caller OOP. This board heavily favors the HJ's range of broadways and overpairs.
While we are at the bottom of our range, folding to a tiny 1/3 pot bet with an underpair and backdoor equity is slightly too tight.
Checking is mandatory as the caller OOP. This board heavily favors the HJ's range of broadways and overpairs.
Folding is a reasonable simplification, but technically we should mix in some calls against this small sizing. **Math:** We are getting nearly 4:1 on a call, needing only ~20% equity to continue. Our 55 has roughly 37% equity against a standard HJ c-betting range, making this a profitable continue in theory. **Ranges:** HJ has a massive range advantage here with all the sets (QQ, JJ, 77) and strong top pairs. However, because they bet so small (34% pot), they are forced to include many air hands and weak draws that we currently beat. **Plan:** If we call, we are looking for a 5 or a non-spade brick. On turns that complete the flush or straights (like a T or K), we must be prepared to check-fold to further aggression. --- > **Takeaway:** Against small 1/3 pot c-bets, you must defend wider than you think, even with underpairs that have backdoor potential.
Note: Folding is slightly too tight against a small 1/3 pot bet; the pot odds make this a marginal continue.