Flop Analysis
Checking our entire range is standard on this paired board. We lack a range advantage and must protect our checking range by not leading out.
Folding A2s to a tiny flop bet on a paired board is a significant mistake; we have too much equity and backdoor potential to give up.
Checking our entire range is standard on this paired board. We lack a range advantage and must protect our checking range by not leading out.
Folding here is a major error. We are getting over 4:1 on a call with the nut backdoor flush draw and an overcard that is often clean if we hit an Ace. **Math:** We only need ~20% equity to continue, and our hand has roughly 45% against the BTN's betting range. Folding here allows BTN to profitably bet any two cards against us. **Ranges:** BTN will bet small with many hands we currently beat (KQ, QT, 76s) or hands we have significant equity against. We also function as a great semi-bluff raise candidate to put their air and small pairs in a tough spot. **Blockers:** Holding the As is crucial as it blocks BTN's strongest Ax hands and some of their potential Jx combos like AJs, making our continue even more robust. --- > **Takeaway:** Never fold nut backdoor draws to a 1/3 pot bet on paired boards; you have far too much equity to over-fold.
Note: Folding to a 33% pot bet with an overcard and nut backdoor flush draw is a massive over-fold; we must call or raise.