Flop Analysis
Checking is the standard play here. We have a marginal made hand that benefits from pot control, and we want to keep the opponent's bluffs in.
With a made hand and excellent pot odds against a capped range, we must call the turn to realize our equity.
Checking is the standard play here. We have a marginal made hand that benefits from pot control, and we want to keep the opponent's bluffs in.
We continue with the plan of checking. The King is a better card for the preflop raiser's range, so we remain in defensive mode with our middle pair.
Folding here is a significant mistake. We have a solid middle pair and the price offered is far too good to give up our equity against a wide range. **Math:** We are getting 3.5:1 pot odds, requiring only 22.5% equity to continue. Our hand currently holds over 50% equity against a range that includes many semi-bluffs and air. **Ranges:** By checking back the flop, the opponent's range is capped; they rarely have the strongest made hands like overpairs or top-tier Tens. While the King is a scare card, they still have plenty of diamond draws and straight draws that we currently beat. **Plan:** Calling allows us to realize our equity and reach the river. We can comfortably fold to further large aggression on most rivers, but we cannot fold to this small probe bet. --- > **Takeaway:** Never fold a made hand for a small sizing when the opponent has a capped range and the pot odds are excellent.
Note: Folding middle pair to a small turn bet is a significant over-fold given the excellent pot odds and the opponent's capped range.