We play the hand well preflop and on the flop, but the massive turn overbet with an overpair burns EV by folding out worse and isolating against very strong hands.
Flop Analysis
We want to bet this flop often with AA, but prefer a smaller c-bet size than we chose to keep our range balanced and preserve maneuverability with SPR still above 2.
**Ranges:** Our 4-bet range is value-heavy (AA–QQ, AK) and BU is condensed around strong pairs, broadways, and some suited connectors, so we have a slight range and clear value advantage but BU is not capped.
**Board:** This dry, disconnected rainbow texture with only straight draws possible is excellent for our overpairs; it doesn’t smash BU’s range, so a small bet extracts value from Qx, TT–JJ, and draws without bloating the pot.
**Sizing:** Solver strategy leans toward a small ~25% pot bet or check; our ~40% pot sizing still works but is a bit large, pushing out some of BU’s worse hands and giving up some EV compared with the cheaper stab.
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> **Takeaway:** In 4-bet pots on dry, high-card boards with range advantage, lean on small flop c-bets rather than medium ones, even with AA.
Note: Betting is good, but using a medium sizing instead of the preferred small c-bet gives up some EV by over-charging our own range and folding out too many worse hands.
Turn Analysis
With SPR ≈ 1, AA is strong but not invulnerable here; checking or using a small bet performs better than an oversized jam that mostly folds out hands we beat and continues against very strong holdings and strong draws.
**Ranges:** After calling flop, BU’s range is weighted to Qx, TT–JJ, some slowplayed QQ, occasional two pair/sets, and the new spade draws; our range still contains all overpairs and top sets, but equity overall is close, so we don’t have a huge incentive to stuff money in with our entire value range.
**Board:** The 5♠ adds a flush draw and slightly increases connectivity, improving BU’s continuing range while not improving our overpair; the texture got more dangerous, so barreling our whole strong range for stacks becomes less attractive.
**Sizing:** Solver prefers checking most of range and mixing in small bets, with jams used relatively infrequently; our effective pot-sized overbet-jam massively over-polarizes us, folds out many worse one-pair hands, and mainly gets action from two pair+, sets, and strong draws, which lowers AA’s realized EV.
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> **Takeaway:** In 4-bet pots with SPR around 1 on a turn that strengthens your opponent’s range, don’t auto-jam overpairs—check or bet small and let weaker hands continue.
Note: The huge turn overbet with an overpair is too polar and folds out most of the range we’re ahead of, making AA under-realize its equity compared with a check or small bet.