A6s BU on T87fd: The Math of Monster Draws

Hero
A♥6♥
Position
BU vs CO
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
T♠ 8♥ 7♥

Aggressive barreling with a monster draw is standard, and calling the shove is a mandatory math-driven decision given our equity.

Flop Analysis

Betting is preferred to realize equity and put pressure on CO's marginal pairs. While we have a monster draw, our sizing could be more efficient.

Note: Sizing is slightly too large; a 33% pot bet is more efficient on this connected board to maintain range pressure.

Turn Analysis

The Queen is a strong card for our 3-bet range (AQ, KQ), and we must continue barreling with our high-equity draw. We have roughly 35% equity against Villain's continuing range.

Turn Analysis

This is a pure math call. We have too much equity to ever fold the nut flush draw plus a gutshot when getting these excellent price odds. **Math:** We need roughly 23% equity to call. With 12 clean outs to the nuts or near-nuts (9 hearts and 3 non-heart nines), we have approximately 26% equity against even a very strong range. **Ranges:** Villain's shove represents sets (TT, 88, 77), straights (J9s, 96s), or two-pairs (QTs). Even against this value-heavy range, our combo draw retains enough equity to make the call profitable. --- > **Takeaway:** Never fold a nut flush draw facing a shove when the pot odds are better than 3:1 and you have additional straight outs.

Key Concepts

  • 5.6
  • Villain Slight Advantage
  • IP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD AGGRESSION