AA BB on K98fd: Don’t Fold The Overpair
- Hero
- A♠A♥
- Position
- BB vs UTG
- Pot
- 3-Bet Pot
- Flop
- 9♦ 8♦ K♣
The 3‑bet and flop c‑bet are fine, but turn should mostly check and once we bet and get raised, folding AA with these pot odds is a big leak.
Flop Analysis
We should c‑bet here very often with AA, but the solver clearly prefers a small size; using ~80% pot over‑polarizes our range and makes UTG’s life too easy with marginal hands.
**Ranges:** BB 3‑bet vs UTG has a clear value advantage (overpairs, AK, some sets) while UTG mostly has condensed medium‑strong hands like KQ, JJ–QQ, suited broadways and some slow‑played monsters. Small bets let those medium pairs and Kx continue wider and keep our range uncapped.
**Board:** The coordinated, two‑tone texture gives both players a lot of equity, but our overpairs and AK still sit comfortably ahead of UTG’s range; we don’t need a big size to deny equity to hands like AQ/AJ with draws.
**Sizing:** Solver wants about 1/3 pot almost always and occasionally 1/2; that keeps our range strong and flexible while not bloating the pot against a range that still has plenty of strong continues.
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> **Takeaway:** In 3‑bet pots on wet K‑high boards at deep stacks, lean on a small c‑bet with overpairs instead of auto‑piloting big bets.
Note: Bet size is too large; AA wants to bet often but mostly for ~33% pot, not ~80%.
Turn Analysis
Turn is the real pivot: with SPR ~2.4 on a now very connected board, AA becomes a mixed action that slightly prefers checking; betting again with a bigger‑than‑solver size narrows us too much and invites punishing raises.
**Ranges:** After UTG calls flop on this texture, their range is rich in strong one‑pair (KQ, KJ), two‑pair (KQ, K9s), sets, and strong draws (JT, diamond and club combos). Our range is value‑heavy but not crushing anymore, so checking keeps our range wider and protects our checking line.
**Board:** The new broadway card connects hard with UTG’s continuing calling range and completes straights like JT while leaving all the flushes as draws; the board has shifted from us clearly ahead to fairly neutral in equity and very volatile in realized outcomes.
**Sizing:** Solver mostly checks here and when it bets prefers about half‑pot with some frequency; our 33BB into 58.5BB (slightly >50%) is not a disaster, but using a mixed strategy and leaning toward check would be higher EV overall.
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> **Takeaway:** When a turn card smashes the caller’s range and brings straights, slow down with overpairs and protect your checking range instead of auto second‑barreling.
Note: Turn should mostly be a check with AA; betting is fine in theory as a mix, but leaning too heavily into bet with a slightly chunky size makes us too face‑up and vulnerable to raises.
Turn Analysis
Facing the huge turn raise after betting, AA should not be folded with this price; solver wants to continue aggressively with this exact combo, and folding gives up way too much equity at this SPR.
**Ranges:** UTG’s raise range is polarized between strong value (straights, two‑pair, sets) and semi‑bluffs like JT with clubs/diamonds, Ax with nut draws, or pair+draws. AA is high in our range and unblocks many natural bluffs (we don’t hold a ten, jack, or a club/diamond), so it’s a mandatory continue in theory.
**Math:** We are calling 107.2BB to win 307.1BB, needing only ~24% equity. Even against a value‑heavy raising range that still includes some KQ/AK with big draws, AA comfortably clears that threshold; folding here over‑folds our range by a lot.
**Plan:** Once we bet this turn and get raised at SPR < 2, our line is essentially bet/call‑off or bet/3‑bet jam, not bet/fold; the commitment was made with the turn bet, not with the decision versus the raise.
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> **Takeaway:** At NL200, don’t bet/fold overpairs in 3‑bet pots to big turn raises when you’re getting excellent odds and still beat all top‑pair plus draw combos.
Note: Folding AA to the turn jam with 3.2:1 pot odds is a significant error; this combo should stack off, not fold.
Key Concepts
- Build Pot
- Hero Slight Advantage
- OOP
- Wet Board
- LEAN TOWARD AGGRESSION