Flop Analysis
Checking our monster draw is correct — ranges are close, SPR is huge, and OOP should mostly check and realize equity rather than building a pot immediately.
We played the draw aggressively in good spots, but once we’re raised all‑in on the turn our straight+flush draw doesn’t have the equity to stack off and should fold.
Checking our monster draw is correct — ranges are close, SPR is huge, and OOP should mostly check and realize equity rather than building a pot immediately.
With the combo draw facing a small c‑bet and great pot odds, calling is the main line; raising is mixed and, when chosen, should use a larger, more polar sizing than we did. **Ranges:** BU’s small stab keeps their range wide (Tx, overpairs, pairs like 88–99, and plenty of air/overcards), while our x/c range is very strong and draw-heavy; we don’t need to blow the pot up to realize equity. **Board:** This wet, connected texture means raises should be quite polar — strong made hands and our very best draws — and those raises work best as large sizings that pressure one-pair hands and overcards. **Sizing:** Solver uses overbet raises (~1.3–1.4x pot) with this combo; our smaller raise keeps too many marginal hands comfortable and doesn’t maximize fold equity or value when we improve. --- > **Takeaway:** On wet boards OOP, prefer calling with strong draws versus small bets and, if raising, lean into big, polar raises instead of middling check-raises.
Once we improve to a straight with the nut flush draw, betting is mandatory, but this hand prefers a large overbet rather than a medium two‑thirds pot bet. **Ranges:** After we check‑raise flop and get called, BU’s range is quite strong (overpairs, Tx, sets, strong draws). Our hand is near the top of our range, and we also have many worse draws and pairs that want protection from their equity. **Sizing:** The solver overbets here most of the time with this combo (~1.2–1.3x pot) to polarize, put BU’s strong one‑pair and draw hands in tough spots, and set up a simple jam on many rivers; our 0.7x pot sizing is fine but leaves money on the table. **SPR:** With SPR ~4, a big overbet effectively commits stacks and simplifies river play; the smaller bet leaves more awkward decisions versus raises and on bad rivers. --- > **Takeaway:** With very strong hands plus redraws at medium SPR, favor large overbets to polarize ranges and cleanly set up stack‑offs.
Facing the huge shove after we bet turn, we should fold — even with a made straight plus the flush draw, BU’s range is so value-heavy that calling is clearly -EV. **Ranges:** After BU calls our flop check‑raise and then rips over our turn bet, their range is heavily weighted to very strong value: higher straights (97s), sets (55, 66, TT, 44), and sometimes two pair; bluffs and dominated draws are rare in this line. **Math:** We’re getting about 2.7:1, needing ~27% equity, but this combo only has around 48–49% raw equity versus BU’s overall range and performs much worse once we factor how over-valued second‑best straights and dominated draws are in an all‑in pot; solver folds this hand almost always. **Position / SPR:** With the SPR now under 2 and OOP, when BU jams over our turn aggression we’re up against a very polarized, value‑dense range; continuing too wide here dumps money at NL50, where this line is severely under‑bluffed. --- > **Takeaway:** Don’t let “I have a straight and a flush draw” seduce us into stacking off — versus a turn check‑raise shove in raised pots at NL50, this hand is a disciplined fold.