Once we call preflop and flop with TT on this board, folding turn to a small bet gives up too much equity and over-folds our range.
Flop Analysis
Calling flop is correct: third pair plus a gutshot with excellent pot odds and position clearly clears the threshold to continue versus a single c-bet.
**Board:** This high, wet board interacts strongly with BB’s 3-bet range, but also with our button range; while we’re behind a lot of top-pair+ holdings, we have pair + straight draw and the texture is not so bad that we must fold.
**Math:** Facing 11.1 into 36.2 we’re getting about 3.3:1 and need ~23% equity; solver equity for this combo is just over 50% vs range, so calling is a very comfortable continue.
**Plan:** With SPR dropping toward 1.5 after we call, the plan is to call once more on many reasonable turn sizings and only fold if villain polarizes hard on very bad cards and our equity collapses.
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> **Takeaway:** On dynamic boards, don’t fold pair + good draw to a single c-bet when the price is great and your equity is clearly there.
Turn Analysis
Turn is where we give up too early — despite the flush completing, our pair plus gutshot and position with excellent pot odds should be continued almost always versus this small stab.
**Board:** The third club is a bad card for our exact hand strength, but it also heavily favors BB’s bluffing region: a lot of their flop c-bet air and one-club hands now have a natural incentive to continue betting when they pick up equity or credible scare cards.
**Math:** We face 18.6 into 65.8, getting ~3.5:1 and needing only ~22% equity; our hand has about 30% vs range, so folding here gives up clear profitable equity, especially with IP realization and some chance to improve.
**Plan:** After calling turn, we can fold to large, polarized river bets on bricks and call mainly versus small, blocky bets or when we improve (J for the straight), keeping our range from over-folding and realizing the equity we’ve already invested for.
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> **Takeaway:** When a scare card hits and villain bets small, don’t auto-muck decent equity hands — use the price and your remaining outs to justify continuing.
Note: Folding to the small turn bet with third pair plus a gutshot and excellent pot odds is too tight; we still have enough equity to call profitably and over-fold our range by giving up.