Flop Analysis
Standard call with middle pair against a small c-bet. We have 58% equity and are getting excellent pot odds to continue.
Folding middle pair with 60% equity on a brick turn is a massive mistake, especially at shallow stack depths where we should be fighting for the pot.
Standard call with middle pair against a small c-bet. We have 58% equity and are getting excellent pot odds to continue.
Folding here is a significant error. The 6d is a total brick that doesn't change the board state, and we still hold 60% equity against the opponent's range. **Math:** We are getting 2.4:1 on a call, requiring only 30% equity to continue. With 60% equity, we are mathematically obligated to stay in the hand; folding is essentially throwing away the pot. **Ranges:** The opponent's range is wide, containing many overcards (AK, AJ, AT) and flush draws (AcXc) that we currently beat. While they have some Qx, our hand is too strong to fold to a single barrel on this texture. **Sizing:** At an SPR of ~2, we are in a 'commit or fold' territory. The solver actually prefers raising here to protect our equity against overcards and force the opponent to realize their equity poorly with draws. --- > **Takeaway:** When the SPR is low and the turn is a brick, don't fold middle pairs that still have high equity against the opponent's bluffs and draws.
Note: Folding middle pair with 60% equity on a brick turn is a massive over-fold; we must at least call, and raising is even better at this shallow SPR.